Um, weird stuff.
This is second time around so apologies if it gets through twice but my mail
delivery
subsystem kinda barfed.
> Subject: Re: EuOS, 3D distance alg's, and fuzzy logic
> Date: Tue, 06 Oct 1998 01:50:58 -0500
> From: John Worthington <woodmage at earthlink.net>
> Mycroft wrote:
>
> > Michael Sabal wrote:
> > <snip>
> > > [Fuzzy logic]
> > >a coin 10 times and they are all heads, the probability of the next
> > >flip being heads is 50%. However, we know from experience that the
> > >odds of heads coming up are closer to 25%, getting lower with each
> > >subsequent head.
> > <more snip>
> > Go aheah and test it yourself, flip a new coin many times (the
> > same whay each time,preferably by a mechanical, process) and look at
> > results, you'll find them very nearly 50/50, the nearness to even odds
> > being greater based on the number of trial.
>
> True, as far as it goes. The odds of a coin turning up heads is 50%
> regardless of which time you are flipping it.
>
> > you'll also finds runs of a set number of heads just as often
> > followed by heads again as by tails.
>
> This is NOT true, however. The odds of a coin turning up heads a specific
> number of times within a specific number of tries mazimizes at around 50%
> and decreases both for small numbers and for large ones. In other words,
> you have very little chance of having that coin turn up heads only 5 times
> out of 50 and the exact same small chance of having it turn up heads 45
> times out of 50. The closer to 25 you get, the closer you get to that 50%
> chance. Does this help?
>
> \/\/ood/\/\age
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