Re: Probability and Fuzzy Logic
>From: C & K L <candk at TICNET.COM>
>
>In the flipping of a coin, it is 50% likely heads, 50% likely tails,
>regardless of any past flippings.
>
>You contradict yourself when you say the flipping is independent of
>previous results, and then say that the previous results have a
bearing,
>or can be used to determine, what will happen next.
>
No, what I'm saying is that any given coin flip has 50% probability
coming up heads. However, you are talking about flipping a coin n
times, where you will get n-1 heads, and 1 tails, the probability for
this is much lower than for n/2 of each.
Actually, the formula I gave isn't totally correct. It works if you
don't care which order the flips come in. If we do care about order
(what's the probability that I will flip 9 heads and then 1 tail),
then the probability is simply .5^n.
The confusion comes from looking at individual flips versus a series of
flips.
>> This last is correct. The flipping of a coin is independent of
previous
>> results. However, the likelihood of having flipped that many heads
AND
>> flipping another does go down. The formula for that is:
>
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
|
Not Categorized, Please Help
|
|
