OpenEuphoria

Re: COVID19 data base

• Posted by Senator Apr 03, 2020
• 1487 views

Thanks for all the comments.

I obtain my U.S.A. data from: WHO and data the GA (USA) data from: GA Georgia does not report "Recovered" cases.

I also refer to: Health Data which makes projections based upon various assumptions:

We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government 
alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted 
fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within 
seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures 
is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of 
social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number 
of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates. 

Based upon the assumptions cited above, I think the healthdata.org projections/forecasts are significantly biased toward the optimistic.

I am going to try to avoid the "epidemiological rabbit hole" by keeping it very simple while realizing that many caveats apply:

Current Table: GA 
Day 22: 2020-4-2 
    CONFIRMED: 5,444 (+696) = 1.146 Daily Growth Rate 
    Daily Grow Rate moving average, period = 7 days: 1.1907 
    DECEASED: 176 (+22) = 0.03232 X Confirmed Cases 
    RECOVERED: 0 
    ACTIVE: 5268 
 
        The Daily Growth Rate Moving Average for Confirmed Cases 
        has declined for 9 day(s). 
        Ratio Confirmed cases/deaths: 0.03233 = 3.233% 

I believe the moving average gives a pretty good approximation as to whether we are moving in a positive or negative direction.

Thanks again for all the comments and suggestions and any more will be welcomed.

Regards,
Kenneth Rhodes