1. COVID19 data base
- Posted by Senator Apr 01, 2020
- 1557 views
I have been tracking U.S., State, County data in an effort to see if we are making progress reducing the growth rate of confirmed cases, etc.
My projected data uses the latest 7 day moving average of the Daily Growth Rate.
Any Suggestions?
Current Table: US #20: {2020,3,31,23,0,0} CONFIRMED: 189,510 (+25,236) = 1.153 Daily Growth Rate Daily Grow Rate moving average, period = 7 days: 1.1938 DECEASED: 4,076 (+1,036) = 0.02150 X Confirmed Cases RECOVERED: 7109 ACTIVE: 178325 Current Table: US Daily Growth Rate of confirmed case average over the last 7 days: 1.193 -- 1.193886987 Ratio Confirmed cases/deaths: 0.02151 = 2.151% Daily Growth Rate Moving Average, Period = 7 days: 3.095 3.105 3.128 1.209 1.391 1.365 1.334 1.294 1.271 1.249 1.234 1.199 1.194 -- 1.193886987 based on a Daily Growth Rate of: 1.193 display("based on a Daily Growth Rate of: [.3g]", mva[$]) based on a Daily Growth Rate of: 1.194 printf(f,"based on a Daily Growth Rate of: %1.3f\n", mva[$]) 1.193886987 Coronavirus: US Projected Data Day Date Confirmed Deaths #1 2020-4-1: 226,254 4,866 +790 #2 2020-4-2: 270,122 5,810 +944 #3 2020-4-3: 322,495 6,936 +1,126 #4 2020-4-4: 385,023 8,281 +1,345 #5 2020-4-5: 459,674 9,887 +1,606 #6 2020-4-6: 548,799 11,804 +1,917 #7 2020-4-7: 655,204 14,092 +2,288
2. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by ChrisB (moderator) Apr 01, 2020
- 1541 views
Hi fits with a doubling every 4 days (1.19 ^ 4)
Are you trying to model it?
3. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by Senator Apr 01, 2020
- 1536 views
Hi fits with a doubling every 4 days (1.19 ^ 4)
Are you trying to model it?
I suppose I am trying to model it. I am out of my league, as usual.
My notion was that I might be able to determine a +- growth factor somehow from the moving average of growth factors. which I could use to progressively (recursively?) project future data points. But I am stabbing in the dark. Just trying stuff.
Regards, Ken Rhodes
4. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by ChrisB (moderator) Apr 02, 2020
- 1506 views
Yeah, huge number of factors covering the infection rate of this virus, start by listing the factors that cover it's spread, and you can start to see the epidemiology rabbit hole you're falling into.
Good luck
Cheers
Chris
5. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by jmduro Apr 02, 2020
- 1493 views
To see the growth you will have to remove cured patients, to keep only infected patients.
Then you can plot a graph to see the different phases of the pandemic.
Jean-Marc
6. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by katsmeow Apr 02, 2020
- 1510 views
To see the growth you will have to remove cured patients, to keep only infected patients.
How do you account for the asymptomatic infected non-patients who never get tested, but keep spreading the virus? Or those with mild symptoms, who chalk it up to normal seasonal allergies? Or the varies-by-state practices of "report all deaths as covid, and disprove it later" vs "don't report any deaths as covid unless certified by testing and lack of co-morbidities"?
EDIT: Also, there's still a large backlog of tests (1000's in a few places i bothered to look), and some of those tests may be for people who have already died. This is leading to people being counted as dead and days later being counted as newly infected. Etc..
A browser-based gui for the John Hopkins University covid database. Nope, i did not say it is the best, the most appropriate, written in OE, or anything else, just that it exists.
Curious as a...
Kat
7. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by Senator Apr 03, 2020
- 1459 views
Thanks for all the comments.
I obtain my U.S.A. data from: WHO and data the GA (USA) data from: GA Georgia does not report "Recovered" cases.
I also refer to: Health Data which makes projections based upon various assumptions:
We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assume that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days. We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete. With each model update, the assumption of full implementation of social distancing measures is reset; any delay will be reflected in the number of deaths and burden on hospital systems that the model estimates.
Based upon the assumptions cited above, I think the healthdata.org projections/forecasts are significantly biased toward the optimistic.
I am going to try to avoid the "epidemiological rabbit hole" by keeping it very simple while realizing that many caveats apply:
Current Table: GA Day 22: 2020-4-2 CONFIRMED: 5,444 (+696) = 1.146 Daily Growth Rate Daily Grow Rate moving average, period = 7 days: 1.1907 DECEASED: 176 (+22) = 0.03232 X Confirmed Cases RECOVERED: 0 ACTIVE: 5268 The Daily Growth Rate Moving Average for Confirmed Cases has declined for 9 day(s). Ratio Confirmed cases/deaths: 0.03233 = 3.233%
I believe the moving average gives a pretty good approximation as to whether we are moving in a positive or negative direction.
Thanks again for all the comments and suggestions and any more will be welcomed.
Regards,
Kenneth Rhodes
8. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by Senator Apr 04, 2020
- 1390 views
Current Table: US Day 23: 2020-4-3 CONFIRMED: 277,953 (+32,740) = 1.133 Daily Growth Rate Daily Grow Rate moving average, period = 7 days: 1.1509 DECEASED: 7,152 (+1,169) = 2.573% of Confirmed Cases RECOVERED: 9,823 ACTIVE: 260,978 Moving Average Period = 7 days Confirmed Cases: The Daily Growth Rate Moving Average has DECLINED for 11 consecutive days Deaths/Confirmed Cases: Deaths/Confirmed Cases Moving Average has INCREASED for 9 consecutive days
9. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by MarkB Apr 05, 2020
- 1341 views
Some of this information is already available. For example, https://ourworldindata.org (click on the narrow orange banner near the top, or scroll down to find the COVID-19 section) has a lot of data in table, map and chart form, from sources that appear to be reliable. Well, as reliable as any other, at least.
The interactive charts in particular are well designed - data can be selected by date, country, region or a combination.
10. Re: COVID19 data base
- Posted by petelomax Apr 06, 2020
- 1306 views
- Last edited Apr 10, 2020
Related: https://rosettacode.org/mw/index.php?title=Logistic_Curve_Fitting_in_Epidemiology&redirect=no
Way over my head...
UPDATE: added a simple solution: https://rosettacode.org/wiki/Logistic_Curve_Fitting_in_Epidemiology#Phix