1. Re: Probability and Fuzzy Logic
- Posted by Matthew Lewis <matthewlewis at HOTMAIL.COM> Oct 06, 1998
- 610 views
>From: C & K L <candk at TICNET.COM> > >In the flipping of a coin, it is 50% likely heads, 50% likely tails, >regardless of any past flippings. > >You contradict yourself when you say the flipping is independent of >previous results, and then say that the previous results have a bearing, >or can be used to determine, what will happen next. > No, what I'm saying is that any given coin flip has 50% probability coming up heads. However, you are talking about flipping a coin n times, where you will get n-1 heads, and 1 tails, the probability for this is much lower than for n/2 of each. Actually, the formula I gave isn't totally correct. It works if you don't care which order the flips come in. If we do care about order (what's the probability that I will flip 9 heads and then 1 tail), then the probability is simply .5^n. The confusion comes from looking at individual flips versus a series of flips. >> This last is correct. The flipping of a coin is independent of previous >> results. However, the likelihood of having flipped that many heads AND >> flipping another does go down. The formula for that is: > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com